Asphalt is forecast to advance 1.7% annually

U.S. demand for asphalt is forecast to advance 1.7% annually to more than 38 million tons in 2011. This is equivalent to 211 million barrels of primary asphalt, the vast majority of which is refinery asphalt. In paving markets, demand will rebound from a low 2006 base, reflecting some moderation in asphalt pricing from historically high 2006 levels. In roofing products, demand is expected to slow through 2011, primarily due to weak prospects in new single family home construction. These and other trends are presented in Asphalt, a new study from the Freedonia Group Inc., a Cleveland- based industry market research firm.

Paving products accounted for more than 80% of overall asphalt demand in 2006. Gains for paving products will be driven by increased federal and state spending on highway and road construction, in part due to the implementation of the Safe, Accountable, Flexible and Efficient Transportation Equity Act—A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), the largest highway spending bill in US history. However, as this program will expire in 2009, passage of its subsequent legislation will also be critical.

Consumption of asphalt in roofing and other applications is projected to expand 1.4% annually to 6.7 million tons in 2011. This represents a deceleration from the growth posted in the 2001-2006 period, reflecting an expected decline in new single family home construction, which will negatively impact asphalt roofing for steep slope applications, primarily asphalt shingles. Nevertheless, strongly improving prospects for asphalt low slope roofing products in nonresidential markets will partially offset the weakness in new residential markets. Growth opportunities will also continue to present themselves in maintenance and repair applications in both residential and nonresidential markets.

Among the different types of asphalt paving products, emulsified asphalt will benefit from the use of in-place recycling, microsurfacing and chip seal technologies. Continuing adoption of performance-based specifications for road projects will generate demand for polymer-modified asphalts. However, asphalt cement will continue to be the dominant asphalt paving product.